The Insurance Shop, Inc. -

Tesla (TSLA) faces divided analyst opinions on its future performance. 

For instance, HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall lowered his price target to $130, indicating downside potential of more than 50% from current levels. Tyndall stated that in addition to tepid sales growth, competition challenges in China and brand erosion in Europe are expected to weigh on investor sentiment.

Meanwhile, Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintains an optimistic view with an “Outperform” rating and $550 price target despite weak delivery numbers. Ives believes Tesla’s future “is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been” due to upcoming autonomous driving, FSD, and robotics innovations, though he acknowledges “difficult moments still ahead.”

ARK Investment Expects Tesla Stock to Surge to $2,600

Last year, ARK Investment Management unveiled an updated open-source Tesla model. The investment firm forecasted that Tesla stock would surge to $2,600 in the next five years, indicating an upside of almost 1,000% from current levels. The analysis suggested that Tesla’s future is tied to its autonomous vehicle ambitions. 

ARK estimated that “nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029,” while electric vehicles would account for only about a quarter of total sales and approximately 10% of earnings potential.

ARK’s model presents three scenarios: an expected value of $2,600 per share, with bear and bull cases at $2,000 and $3,100, respectively. Even the bear case would represent substantial growth from Tesla's current share price.

While autonomous vehicles dominate ARK’s valuation thesis, the firm acknowledges other opportunities, including Optimus robots, stationary energy storage, Tesla Semi, and the supercharger network.

Currently, Tesla faces near-term headwinds in its core automotive business, with analysts expressing concern about current sales weakness and intensifying competition, particularly in markets like China and Europe.

What Is the Target Price for Tesla Stock?

Analysts tracking Tesla stock expect its revenue to rise from $97.7 billion in 2024 to $246 billion in 2029. Comparatively, adjusted earnings per share are forecast to expand from $2.42 in 2024 to $9.54 in 2029. So, in the next five years, revenue is expected to grow by 20.3% annually, while earnings estimates are higher at 31.6%. 

If we assume that Tesla meets these estimates and trades at 50 times trailing earnings, it would trade around $477 per share in early 2030, indicating, upside potential of 75% from current levels. 

Out of the 40 analysts covering Tesla, 15 recommend “Strong Buy,” three recommend “Moderate Buy,” 12 recommend “Hold,” and 10 recommend “Strong Sell.” The average target price for TSLA stock is $337.42, indicating upside potential of 28% from current levels.